Every business has a lot of moving parts. They all need to move together and in synchronization for the business to continue to work.
Businesses have control on many of the moving parts. For example, for an e-commerce business you have control over what creatives you make, how your landing page looks, what should be the selling price, where do you source your products from and what source of traffic would you use etc.
Each business has some moving parts that we don’t have so much control on. For example we don’t have a lot of control on the on going auction prices in the Facebook’s bidding system. That would depend on the over-all advertising competitiveness of the traffic source and is not something one can control.
Some parts of the business are predictable whether you have control on them or not. For example despite having no control over the on-going auction rates, it is predictable that the auction rates will be higher in the last quarter and you can use predictability to your advantage despite having no control on the auction prices.
Some parts of the business are not too predictable. The pandemic is the greatest example of that. We neither have any control over it nor could we predict it.
However, for the business to work, all parts that you can control or not and all parts that are predictable or unpredictable need to be aligned together. If they are aligned, you will have a booming business. If not, you will have a bumpy ride.
It’s kind of like a solar eclipse. You know how the earth, sun and moon are moving. You could even predictably say when the eclipse will happen. But it will only happen when all three are aligned.